In the last couple of years or so there have been many people who think a full governmental disclosure on the matter of UFOs and aliens is just over the horizon. There's been a notable increase in public awareness of the UFO phenomenon stimulated by events such as the Chicago O'Hare sighting, the Stephenville sighting, a Vatican astronomer announcing that belief in alien life doesn't contradict faith in God, and most recently Apollo 14 astronaut Edgar Mitchell's interview where he clearly stated that ET exists and has been purposefully covered up for decades by the US government. Indeed, the mainstream news media seems to be covering UFO sightings almost boldly and with much more frequency than the not-so-distant days when "UFO" wasn't even mentioned during the broadcast unless done so with a smirk or a roll of the eyes and usually a laugh. Well, you still get the occasional uncomfortable laugh at times, but the matter generally appears to be taken more seriously by newscasters.
As a person extremely fascinated with UFOs, I'm also somewhat of a realist. While I would love for our government (or whomever governs UFO matters as they relate to us earthlings) to admit what it knows of its own volition, I logically can't think of a reason for them to do such a thing.
What would be the motivation for the US government to disclose its information on UFOs and aliens if they truly exist? To clear the government's collective conscience? I hardly think that an agency the size of a government in general has a conscience, and the select few in the US government who know what there is to know regarding UFOs probably have less than that. While the government occasionally makes apologies and amends for past actions such as the recent apology to African Americans for past wrongs, these are generally a response to outcries where at least a large portion of the public is affected or aware of such wrongdoing, and they are generally done for political purposes. While the government has had a hand in ridiculing and perhaps even caused some individuals bodily or financial harm who have had UFO experiences, I don't think its need to apologize and come clean exceeds its perceived need for secrecy of the matter.
Would the government gain more trust and confidence from the general population if it admitted that it's been keeping secrets of the X-files kind? I believe that on the contrary it would breed more distrust and suspicion should Uncle Sam admit that it had been lying to the masses. Bad for politics and business, unless it was caught sneaking cookies out of the jar. This would also mean the American taxpayers would demand to know of the large sums of money that have gone into "black budgets" regarding research and development on the UFO issue, and that salt in the wound would potentially cause an adverse reaction. Not to mention the fact that if the government has actually been in communication with ET for some time, things could get ugly. I could imagine such vitriolic questions as "Why haven't you given us this revolutionary technology that would save billions in fuel and energy", "Why haven't you given us the cure for cancer that the aliens must surely possess", and numerous other questions aimed at the unethical withholding of information and technology that could make the earth a "better place". Or "Why have you agreed to let them abduct and harm humans without their permission"—this would be a big one if such things occur and have been allowed.
Suppose for a moment that UFOs are really time travelers. Or perhaps that they use a propulsion system that if modified could destroy entire planets or create harmful anomalies such as black holes or worse. These are only thoughts, but if UFOs could cause mass destruction, loss of life, or cause history to be rewritten due to a past event being altered because a recovered UFO fell into the wrong hands—well, you see what I'm getting at. The government would definitely not want this information out in the public domain for obvious reasons.
At this point I don't believe mass panic reminiscent of the War of the Worlds fiasco would ensue upon disclosure of aliens, nor do I see religion falling flat on its face, nor am I worried about the stock market crash theory. Despite these popular beliefs, I don't think they would be the primary worries of our government since so much of the population has been desensitized by now to the possibility that intelligent extraterrestrial life might exist. Certainly it would still be a shocker, but not an altogether alien concept (pun intended).
In the case that UFOs are not connected with aliens or that intelligent alien life doesn't exist, the reasoning behind official denial becomes more complicated and the waters more muddy (unless UFOs are capable of time travel or could be used like George Lucas's Death Star). It's been suggested by some that the government has used UFOs as psychological warfare toward countries not friendly toward the US. I can see how this would've worked for a while in the 1940s and a ways further, but by today I'm pretty convinced that at least some of these other countries would've figured out what was happening, in which case the charade couldn't be continued with any effectiveness—much akin to the ominous scarecrow in the field who initially strikes terror into the heart of any respectable crow, but who later becomes a perch for the crows to sit on and leisurely eat their spoils.
Some believe that UFOs are employed as intelligence gathering devices, and this would explain the need to keep the public in the dark about them. If so, however, there is certainly a lot of intelligence being gathered all over the United States as well as in many other countries on any given day—in cities, rural areas and countrysides where the most intelligent life available is either cattle or vegetation. Historically, intelligence gathering vehicles (such as the U-2 spy plane and the SR-71) are somewhat stealthy and unreachable, and great care is taken not to let them fall into the hands of "the enemy". Statistically, as many little white spheres as are reported for any given month, it seems probable for at least a few of them to crash and be examined by civilians unless they self-destructed on impact or were tracked and immediately retrieved by their operators. Also, do the scores of small spheres seen in the skies of the US originate from the US, or are they foreign intelligence devices allowed to freely come and go?
The US government hasn't had all that difficult of a time keeping the UFO enigma under wraps, and whenever something has leaked or been seen that shouldn't have, it hasn't had much problem with damage control to where the incident usually goes away pretty quickly (the Roswell incident being one very large exception, but this was back when the US government was still pretty new at covering these things up and hadn't learned the proverbial ropes). Just like the statistical odds of a gambler eventually losing all his winnings if he continues gambling, the odds of a secret being kept diminish with time and with the more people privy to the information, and eventually—whether willful disclosure is made or not—some sort of undeniable proof of either alien life or the fact that the US government knows all about UFOs will come out with the wash without being effectively swept under the carpet. It's been over 60 years now, so we'd best not hold our breath waiting—it might be 60 more before the lucky roll of the dice.
Before closing, I have one last thought for the day on the subject of disclosure. As stated earlier, UFOs and the possibility of intelligent alien life is absolutely fascinating to me, and my eyes look skyward any chance I get in the hopes I might see something "unconventional". I love real mysteries, and I can't think of many other mysteries that have been historically as hard to unravel. There is zero doubt that there are unconventional craft that flit around in our atmosphere—anyone who believes differently is either in great denial, doesn't get out much, or hasn't studied the matter. Whether alien life exists or not remains to be seen, but it's what keeps me interested in the subject of UFOs. Were the government to disclose tomorrow that they've been in contact with or been aware of aliens and have covered up the fact for many years, the magic and mystery that initially got many of us interested in the subject decades ago would be gone.
Be careful what you wish for...
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